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By FRANK L.PARKER
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14 In summary, models should be qualitatively sensible, robust to sensitivity analysis, and independent of minor effects or processes, and they should include acceptable levels of uncertainty. However, models cannot prove that the repository is safe, nor can they resolve public concerns about the repository. Supplements to Modeling Natural Analogues. Because models cannot be conclusive with regard to the safety of a repository site, it is important to think carefully about natural analogues. These are natural “test cases,” geological settings in which naturally occurring radioactive materials have been subjected to environmental forces for millions of years.
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One result is a 6,300-page “Site Characterization Plan” for Yucca Mountain. For the reasons described above, however, a process based on getting all of the needed measurements and analysis on the first pass, with acceptably high quality, is not likely to succeed. The geological environment will always produce surprises, like the pockets of pressurized brine at WIPP. No matter what technical approach is initially adopted, the design can be improved by matching it with specific features of the site.