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These numbers get sometimes distorted by arbitrage transactions, but the short interest ratio is nevertheless a good indicator of optimism or pessimism in the market. Short sellers are potential buyers sooner or later and represent a lot of buying power when they have to scramble for cover in a sudden market turn. Contrary indicators require at least some degree of pessimism in order to function and therefore you should watch this ratio very carefully. 96 May96 Jan96 Mar96 2 Page 35 Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratio The Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratio is calculated by dividing odd-lot short sales by the total number of short sales.
The following charts show you the positions of these three groups of market participants. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. Three different charts are available for each commodity: • Short positions of all market participants (Large Speculators, Commercial Hedgers, Small Traders) on a percentage basis. • Short positions of Small Traders only. Significant changes in those numbers give you an insight about prevailing sentiment.. • The Long/Short Ratio of Small Traders.
Each week a poll of market letters is taken to determine the degree of bullishness or bearishness among futures professionals. The theory is that when a significant number of participants are bullish, they are already positioned on the long side and there is little potential buying power left. If most participants are bearish, selling pressure has reached an extreme and prices will reverse to the upside. com 80 BULL/BEAR RATIO MARKET VANE 10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE SELL 60 40 BUY 96-01-05 96-03-01 96-04-26 96-06-21 96-08-16 96-10-11 96-12-06 97-01-31 97-03-28 97-05-23 97-07-18 97-09-12 97-11-07 98-01-02 98-02-27 98-04-24 98-06-19 98-08-14 98-10-09 98-12-04 99-01-29 99-03-26 99-05-21 99-07-16 99-09-10 99-11-05 99-12-31 00-02-25 00-04-21 00-06-16 00-08-11 00-10-06 00-12-01 01-01-26 01-03-23 01-05-18 01-07-13 20 Thanks to the Internet, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) now polls its 170,000 members daily.